Obligatory Vice-President-Picking Post
My down-in-the-dirt political prediction skills are not particularly good. Just ask Homeland Security Secretary Giuliani. My comparative advantage lies elsewhere.
Still, here are my hasty stitches on the vice president process this go-round.
The main difference between McCain’s algorithm and Obama’s is that McCain needs less from his VP, but faces more constraints in whom he can select. Obama has more choices but needs more from whomever he picks.
OBAMA:
There are four benefits that a VP choice can bring to Obama. In no particular order:
1. Appeasing disgruntled Clinton supporters.
2. Executive experience.
3. Foreign policy and/or defense credentials.
4. Helping in, or creating, a “battleground state.”
Note of course that no candidate brings all four qualities to the table — anyone who could would actually be the presidential nominee instead of Obama. Note also that no one I can think of — not even Clinton herself — brings any three to the table.
So the field now consists of those who offer two of the four benefits. Jim Webb? #3 & #4. Kathleen Sibelius? #2 & #4? Hillary Clinton? #1 & #3. Sam Nunn? #3 & #4.
(Joe Biden and Chris Dodd both offer only one benefit — #3 — and therefore are both highly unlikely choices. John Edwards of course brings zero out of four — and no I don’t think Obama would appoint him Attorney General.)
There is one name, however, that I have left out — because I think he is the likely pick based on this analytical framework:
Bill Richardson.
Richardson is also a “two benefit” option: #2 and (especially) #4. But he also brings a bit — not much, but a bit — of #3 as U.N. ambassador. I think “defense credentials” are more important than “foreign policy credentials” in the case of Obama’s choice, but U.N. ambassador is hardly inconsequential. Secretary of Energy certainly doesn’t hurt either given the current circumstances. He might also have some carry-over credibility in neighboring Colorado — also widely considered a battleground state this year.
And while Richardson wouldn’t do much for Obama relative to the Harriet Christian femi-racist wing of the Hillary Clinton base, he could instead help Obama with another group he’s had problems with: Hispanics.
So there it is: Richardson for VP pick. Now tell me why I’m wrong.
McCAIN:
Again, I think the VP choice is much less crucial for McCain than for Obama. But the field is much narrower, because McCain faces two constraints:
1. He must pick someone at least tolerable to, if not beloved by, the Theocratic Right. He’s on thin enough ice with Dobson and his gargoyles as it is. He simply cannot pick another “not one of us” personality. This is why I find predictions that he will choose Mitt Romney utterly laughable (Commerce Secretary, maybe, but not VP). He has to find someone who is at least willing to pretend to sing from the Evangelical hymnal and who has no pro-choice or pro-gay “stains” on his resume.
2. McCain cannot pick any candidate who is either too old or too young. To do either would only emphasize McCain’s own geriatric situation and keep concerns about his health in the spotlight. Someone in his fifties — no younger, no older.
At the end of the day, I still think Mike Huckabee is the logical choice. He appeases the Evangelicals, alienates few if any economic conservatives (his advocacy of a national sales tax notwithstanding), and he doesn’t embarrass or outshine McCain in any appreciable way. McCain was remarkably cordial toward Huckabee at the end of the primary campaign (the same apparently cannot be said for McCain and Romney — to put it mildly).
So there it is: Huckabee for VP pick. Now tell me why I’m wrong.
Filed under: Politics
Richardson is on the money.
Huckabee for VP is wrong in my view. First, McCain and Huck don't particularly like each other. Second, Arkansas is already a red state big tme. Huckabee couldn't raise funds for himself and won't help McCain in that area. McCain's strength won't be W's evangelical base anyway. Mac's appeal is more to pragmatists, centrists and moderates.
McCain will choose Lieberman or Romney depending on whether he wants to gain strength in the middle or on the right. Romney helps him on the right (I think you are off the mark about Dobson, etc who are, at the end of the day, tribal creatures), can deliver Michigan and raises money like a fiend. Lieberman gives him a huge chunk of disgruntled democrats, may deliver Connecticut, helps enormously with the Jewish vote, and appeals more to security-mided centrists who don't get the vapors over Obama's charisma. Lieberman would be the ultimate reaching across the aisle move.
A dark horse would be Sarah Palin or Bobby Jindal. Both are governors, young, and run contrary to the republican old white guy stereotype.
Even though I don't think McCain will actually pick Huckabee, Huckabee is the most logical choice (something I've been arguing since I first said how and why McCain was going to win the nomination even though everyone was writing him off. I hate being right!)
As for Obama, Richardson would be a wise choice, especially since he has the added bonus of being well-regarded by a lot of the small-government elements of the political Right. However, there are a lot of rumors about picking an ex-general. Of the possible generals, Wesley Clark might actually satisfy number 1 in addition to numbers 2 and 3 since he is so closely tied to the Clintons. The problem with Clark is that he has a big negative number five, which is that he comes across as batshit insane when he talks about anything other than military matters.
Kathleen Sibelius would give Obama 2 and 4 and, I think, a partial 1 as well. From what I've read of the disgruntled Clinton supporters, while quite a few do want Clinton and only Clinton, there's also an ample number who's criteria seems to simply be anyone without a penis. I'm not suggesting he should or will choose here, just that I think she arguably brings three of your four benefits.
Now, the monkey wrench in the whole election could be if McCain selected a female (especially a black female) as his VP. He WOULD win over ALOT of the disgruntled Clinton supporters many of whom are threatening to vote for him anyhow. A black woman would also likely hack a good chunk out of Obama's African-American vote. And while McCain would lose a few of the bigot votes over the move, I don't think it's likely he'd lose many. The really extreme ones wouldn't vote for McCain anyhow; the less extreme ones would rather see a black VP than a black Pres; and if he chose someone like Condi Rice who that group has become convinced "knows her place," they probably wouldn't blink an eye at it. That's not to say that I think for a second that McCain will choose a black woman, only that I don't think it'd be a bad political move for him to do so.
McCain-Lieberman? I can just see the Obama speeches now: "Not only is John McCain running for Bush's third term, but now he's picked the perfect running mate to run for Dick Cheney's third term!"
Or: "Apparently John McCain thinks picking someone intent on bombing Iran is more important than picking a Republican!"
Etc.
I just don't see Sibelius turning Kansas into a battleground state — it went for Bush 62-37 in 2004.
"I just don't see Sibelius turning Kansas into a battleground state — it went for Bush 62-37 in 2004."
Eh…Sebelius, despite being a Democrat, is more popular than one would expect in western (i.e. very rural) Kansas because of her time on the Kansas Agriculture Commission. That's how she won 2 terms as governor. The fact that she's a Democrat also helps her win lots of votes in Lawrence (home of the University of Kansas) and Kansas City, Kansas. As a Kansas resident who is very anti-Obama, the prospects of Sebilius as his VP candidate make me more than a little nervous.
I'm not sure I see the value in making into a battleground a state with only 6 electoral votes, though.
Kansas will vote for a Democrat right after the Knicks win another championship.
Another dark horse for McCain might be Colin Powell.
McCain could really use a younger black female who is governor of a swing state.
Obama needs an older female ex-general captain of industry with lots of economy street cred &who is or was governor of a swing state.
See? That's all they need.
No on Huckabee. Despite being an evangelist, the evangelists didn't go overwhelmingly for him. Also he's too much of a southern populist tax-and-spender so that will alienate the WSJ crowd who's not that sold on McCain.
I could actually see Lieberman. He's tolerable to the Dobson crowd and obviously has a rapport with McCain since he's traveled with him.
Jindhal would be an interesting choice, but I don't believe the GOP is ready for a non-caucasian VP, I'll guess that he'll be offered a cabinet position at some point after he's finished 1-2 terms a Governor.
I never thought of Richardson, but of course! He's perfect! Or as perfect as anyone can get. I agree whole-heartedly and I think it would end a lot of argument. Maybe Hillary can be Secretary of State?
Richardson is a good bet, although NM is kind of small, electorally. Huckabee may be logical, but I don't think McCain can stomach it, notwithstanding his cordiality.
BTW – I think you're being awfully generous slotting Clinton as a #3. You must be thinking of her Bosnian bullet dodging.